Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Prediction May 11, 2026 — Key Levels, Global Cues and What to Expect

Published Sunday May 10, 2026. All data is from Friday May 8, 2026 — the last Indian trading session before the weekend. Indian markets were closed on Saturday May 9 and Sunday May 10.

📊 Quick Summary — Monday May 11 Last close (Friday May 8): Nifty 24,176.15 | Sensex 77,328.19 | Bank Nifty 55,310.55 India VIX: 16.62 — elevated, signals caution Brent crude: $100.78/barrel | Rupee: 94.48/USD US S&P 500 (Friday May 8 US session): Record close 7,398.93 (+0.84%) Nifty resistance: 24,330–24,400 → 24,500–24,600 Nifty support: 24,000–24,080 (critical) → 23,800 Bank Nifty resistance: 55,800–56,000 | Support: 55,000 → 54,400 Our view: Cautious-positive open. Range-bound 24,000–24,400. IT sector may outperform.

Friday May 8, 2026 Closing — Verified Data

Indian equity markets closed lower on Friday May 8, 2026 — the last trading session before the weekend. Two factors drove the fall: SBI’s disappointing Q4 results and a fresh escalation in the US-Iran conflict near the Strait of Hormuz.

All numbers below are official NSE and BSE closing figures:

• Nifty 50: 24,176.15 — down 150.50 points (−0.62%) from previous close of 24,326.65
• Sensex: 77,328.19 — down 516.33 points (−0.66%)
• Bank Nifty: 55,310.55 — opened at 55,783.95, high of 55,797.70
• India VIX: 16.62 — elevated; touched intraday high of 17.425
• Nifty Midcap 100: Hit fresh all-time intraday high of 62,113.85 during the session
• Nifty PSU Bank: −3.06% — worst performing sector
• Nifty IT: Best performing sector
• Top Nifty gainers: Titan (+5%), Apollo Hospitals, Asian Paints, Infosys, HCL Tech
• Top Nifty losers: SBI (−7%), HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement
• Brent crude: $100.78/barrel (+0.72%)
• Indian Rupee: 94.48/USD — weakened 23 paise on the day
• Nifty 52-week range: 22,182.55 (April 2026 low) to 26,373.20 (January 5, 2026 high)

What caused the fall on May 8?

SBI reported Q4 FY26 results showing NIM (Net Interest Margin) compression — the bank earned a smaller spread between lending rates and deposit rates than markets expected. SBI shares crashed approximately 7%, dragging Nifty PSU Bank down 3.06%. The contagion spread to HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance. Separately, fresh US-Iran military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz triggered risk-off selling globally.

The bright spots: Titan surged 5% after Q4 profit rose 35% YoY to Rs 1,179 crore. IT stocks outperformed tracking Nasdaq strength.

Global Cues for Monday

US Markets — Record High on Friday May 8

While Indian markets were open and falling, US markets were delivering a strong positive signal during their own Friday session. The catalyst was a better-than-expected April jobs report — the US economy added 115,000 jobs against expectations of just 65,000.

• S&P 500: 7,398.93 — up 0.84%, fresh all-time record close
• Nasdaq: 26,247.08 — up 1.71%, also a record close
• Dow Jones: 49,609.16 — up just 0.02%
• S&P 500 weekly gain: +2.3% — sixth consecutive weekly win, longest streak since 2024
• Nasdaq weekly gain: +4.5% — led by AI and semiconductor stocks

Technology names drove the US rally — Micron (+13.7%), Oracle (+13.56%), SanDisk (+14.27%). This is a direct positive for Indian IT stocks on Monday.

Brent Crude — The Weekend Wild Card

Brent closed at $100.78 on Friday. The US-Iran ceasefire situation over the weekend is the single most important variable for Monday’s open.

If a peace deal is confirmed over the weekend, Brent could fall toward $88–92, Nifty could gap up 150–200 points and test the 24,400–24,600 resistance zone.

If talks collapse or fresh military action occurs, Brent could spike above $108–110, FII selling accelerates, and Nifty risks testing 24,000 support.

Check Sunday evening news before the Monday open.

FII and DII Activity

FIIs have sold a net Rs 6,620.86 crore in May so far. DIIs have bought Rs 14,203.65 crore in the same period — providing the cushion that prevented deeper declines. Until FIIs return as net buyers, rallies will face selling pressure at resistance levels.

Nifty 50 — Monday Technical Levels

The Nifty 50 has formed a higher base around the 23,800 mark — every dip to that zone since April has been bought. However, overhead resistance has consistently capped the upside.

Resistance levels to watch:

• 24,253 → 24,330–24,400: Immediate supply zone — Friday’s intraday high was 24,253.80
• 24,500–24,600: Major resistance — coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 26,000, the 89 EMA, and a recent swing top. Decisive breakout above this is the key bullish trigger.
• 25,000–25,100: Next target above, aligning with the 200-day SMA at 23,776

Support levels:

• 24,000–24,080: Critical confluence of 50-day MA (24,122) and 21-day MA. Must hold for bullish view.
• 23,800: Base of April recovery — consistently bought on dips
• 23,500–23,600: Major floor (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)

RSI on Nifty is at approximately 60 — positive territory, not overbought. MACD remains in buy territory.

Bank Nifty — Monday Levels

Bank Nifty is the weakest major index. The SBI NIM miss has been partially priced in — the question for Monday is whether selling is exhausted or continues.

• Friday May 8 close: 55,310.55 | Opened: 55,783.95 | High: 55,797.70
• Resistance: 55,800–56,000 → 56,334
• Support: 55,000 (psychological) → 54,400 (must hold) → 54,000 (major floor)

Positive catalysts for Bank Nifty this week: HDFC Bank FY27 NIM guidance, RBI June rate cut signals, any improvement in oil prices easing inflation concerns.

Key Events This Week (May 11–15)

• HDFC Bank management call on Q4 — NIM guidance for FY27 is the key number
• US CPI inflation data (Tuesday) — major global market mover
• Wipro Q4 results — IT sector direction
• US-Iran developments — oil price direction for the week
• RBI commentary — June 2026 rate cut expectations are building
• India-Pakistan border situation — background tail risk

Our Summary View for Monday

Record US markets provide a tailwind for Monday’s opening. The domestic reality — banking NIM pressure, elevated crude, FII selling — limits the upside. Most likely scenario: cautious-positive open, range-bound action between 24,000 and 24,400. IT stocks may outperform given Nasdaq’s 1.71% gain. PSU banking stocks may stabilise but are unlikely to reverse Friday’s sharp losses immediately.

The week’s direction depends on two things: whether crude eases on Iran-peace progress, and whether FII selling pace decelerates. Both are weekend unknowns.

These are our personal views. We may be wrong. Never trade based on a single article. These are not investment recommendations.

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